Will the season series between the Cardinals and 49ers end in a tie during the 2026-27 NFL regular season?

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 78¢ · $1K held · ends Jan 27, 2027

Yes22¢No78¢Ends Wed, Jan 27, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

$58.73

Smart Money Entry

74.2¢ → 78¢

+5% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 78%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes22%

No78%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares1,701

Combined PnL+$64.12

Yes1 trader

Total Value$49.52

Total Shares225

Combined PnL-$5.39

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JustADonk	Noavg 75.6¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$37.58	55% 868-716 (1584)
NooseracCTR<$100	Yesavg 24.4¢	$54.91	$49.52	-$5.39	52% 5643-5194 (10837)
MI milkteaboba<$100	Noavg 46.5¢	$21.19	$35.54	+$14.34	62% 26-16 (42)
LE leegunner<$100	Noavg 47.6¢	$19.04	$31.2	+$12.2	44% 1230-1538 (2768)

JustADonk

Invested

$1,221.87

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$37.58

Record

55%

868-716 (1584)

NooseracCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$54.91

Value

$49.52

PnL

-$5.39

Record

52%

5643-5194 (10837)

milkteaboba<$100

Invested

$21.19

Value

$35.54

PnL

+$14.34

Record

62%

26-16 (42)

leegunner<$100

Invested

$19.04

Value

$31.2

PnL

+$12.2

Record

44%

1230-1538 (2768)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 78%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.8%

78.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$25.27

Max Loss

-$100.00

125.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.