Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (62%). 4 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the San Antonio Spurs be the 2027 NBA Western Conference Champion?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 38¢ · $3K held · ends Jul 1, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
4
Yes 100%
$2.6K
$228.45
34.1¢ → 38¢
+11% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 38%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 62%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LE leegunnerCTR | Yesavg 32.5¢ | $1.0K | $1.2K | +$172.41 | 44% 1191-1512 (2703) |
 probabilityCTR | Yesavg 36.1¢ | $920.53 | $1.1K | -$24.11 | 42% 1249-1701 (2950) |
 DEGENKHANCTR | Yesavg 33.6¢ | $694.57 | $271.69 | +$38.96 | 66% 1094-559 (1653) |
 UbuntuTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 32.7¢ | $52.18 | $39.13 | +$41.19 | 58% 2971-2140 (5111) |
Invested
$1,022.71
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$172.41
Record
44%
1191-1512 (2703)
probabilityCTRInvested
$920.53
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$24.11
Record
42%
1249-1701 (2950)
DEGENKHANCTRInvested
$694.57
Value
$271.69
PnL
+$38.96
Record
66%
1094-559 (1653)
UbuntuTradingCTR<$100Invested
$52.18
Value
$39.13
PnL
+$41.19
Record
58%
2971-2140 (5111)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
38.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.