Will the Republicans win the Oregon Senate race in 2026?

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 99¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 4

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

-$22.84

Smart Money Entry

99.2¢ → 99.2¢

+0% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares1,651

Combined PnL-$14.53

Yes1 trader

Total Value$3.62

Total Shares213

Combined PnL-$8.31

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Slowroasted	Noavg 99.3¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$15	87% 1909-274 (2183)
KO korda77	Noavg 98.2¢	$133.63	$133.77	+$0.14	52% 2649-2428 (5077)
bernardbulletin<$100	Noavg 95¢	$9.52	$9.85	+$0.33	68% 912-432 (1344)
ME merod<$100	Noavg 98.2¢	$4.99	$4.99	+$0.01	55% 1471-1222 (2693)
AJ AJSVCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.6¢	$11.93	$3.62	-$8.31	36% 12963-22716 (35679)

Slowroasted

Invested

$1,489.5

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$15

Record

87%

1909-274 (2183)

korda77

Invested

$133.63

Value

$133.77

PnL

+$0.14

Record

52%

2649-2428 (5077)

bernardbulletin<$100

Invested

$9.52

Value

$9.85

PnL

+$0.33

Record

68%

912-432 (1344)

merod<$100

Invested

$4.99

Value

$4.99

PnL

+$0.01

Record

55%

1471-1222 (2693)

AJSVCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.93

Value

$3.62

PnL

-$8.31

Record

36%

12963-22716 (35679)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.