Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (78%). 1 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the Republican Party win the PA-10 House seat?

1 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (33%) · Yes at 22¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 4

Yes22¢No78¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 33%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.6K

Combined PnL

$97.44

Research grade

AvoidYes at 22%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 3 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors No 78%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes22%

No78%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes1 trader

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares5,096

Combined PnL+$102.43

No2 traders

Total Value$522.75

Total Shares617

Combined PnL-$4.99

Yes — 33%No — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
IstarothARB<$100	Noavg 80¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	-$16.41	55% 264-213 (477)
└ No leg	Noavg 80¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	-$40
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 20.8¢	$416.26	$440	+$23.59
mombilCTR	Yesavg 20¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$102.43	55% 1184-960 (2144)
AJ AJSV	Noavg 79.9¢	$682.56	$468.15	-$8.14	36% 12837-22501 (35338)
DE dedidanc<$100	Noavg 78¢	$54.6	$54.6	+$3.15	57% 81-62 (143)

IstarothARB<$100

Invested

$2,020

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$16.41

Record

55%

264-213 (477)

Both legs:

No$1,60080¢-$40

Yes$416.2620.8¢+$23.59

mombilCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,018.62

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$102.43

Record

55%

1184-960 (2144)

AJSV

Invested

$682.56

Value

$468.15

PnL

-$8.14

Record

36%

12837-22501 (35338)

dedidanc<$100

Invested

$54.6

Value

$54.6

PnL

+$3.15

Record

57%

81-62 (143)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 22%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 3 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors No 78%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance23.7%

22.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$321.79

Max Loss

-$100.00

421.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.