Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (83%). 1 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the Republican Party win the PA-08 House seat?
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (20%) · Yes at 18¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 4
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 20%
$2.3K
-$691.61
Research grade
AvoidYes at 18%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)Underdog side (market favors No 83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AN anoin123CTR | Yesavg 34¢ | $1.6K | $826.35 | -$779.13 | 46% 442-512 (954) |
 mombil | Noavg 79¢ | $896.75 | $691.12 | +$29.32 | 55% 1187-965 (2152) |
 mrworldwide | Noavg 82¢ | $419.86 | $422.42 | +$2.56 | 69% 761-349 (1110) |
AB ABC12345654321 | Noavg 72¢ | $269.89 | $309.25 | +$39.36 | 50% 1630-1606 (3236) |
GA Gaditima<$100 | Noavg 61¢ | $46.2 | $62.49 | +$16.28 | — |
Invested
$1,605.48
Value
$826.35
PnL
-$779.13
Record
46%
442-512 (954)
mombilInvested
$896.75
Value
$691.12
PnL
+$29.32
Record
55%
1187-965 (2152)
mrworldwideInvested
$419.86
Value
$422.42
PnL
+$2.56
Record
69%
761-349 (1110)
Invested
$269.89
Value
$309.25
PnL
+$39.36
Record
50%
1630-1606 (3236)
Invested
$46.2
Value
$62.49
PnL
+$16.28
Record
—
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
17.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.