Will the Republican Party win the OH-15 House seat?

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 62¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 4

Yes62¢No38¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 75%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.6K

Combined PnL

$981.59

Smart Money Entry

33.4¢ → 62¢

+85% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 62%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes62%

No38%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares3,437

Combined PnL+$947.48

No1 trader

Total Value$166.32

Total Shares426

Combined PnL+$34.12

Yes — 75%No — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnapElectionAvoider	Yesavg 30.6¢	$924.9	$1.9K	+$920.6	53% 1058-953 (2011)
GA Gaditima	Yesavg 54.2¢	$215.42	$242.3	+$26.87	—
IstarothARB<$100	Yesavg 63.9¢	$235.33	$233.19	-$1.16	36% 273-477 (750)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 63.9¢	$149.03	$144.58	-$4.54
└ No leg	Noavg 36.5¢	$85.19	$88.61	+$3.38
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR	Noavg 31¢	$132.2	$166.32	+$34.12	53% 6132-5384 (11516)
AB ABC12345654321<$100	Yesavg 62¢	$8.63	$8.63	+$0	50% 1630-1606 (3236)

SnapElectionAvoider

Yes

Invested

$924.9

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$920.6

Record

53%

1058-953 (2011)

Gaditima

Yes

Invested

$215.42

Value

$242.3

PnL

+$26.87

Record

—

IstarothARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$235.33

Value

$233.19

PnL

-$1.16

Record

36%

273-477 (750)

Both legs:

Yes$149.0363.9¢-$4.54

No$85.1936.5¢+$3.38

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR

Invested

$132.2

Value

$166.32

PnL

+$34.12

Record

53%

6132-5384 (11516)

ABC12345654321<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.63

Value

$8.63

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

1630-1606 (3236)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 62%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.9%

62.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$56.42

Max Loss

-$100.00

156.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.