Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (74%). 1 of 2 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the Republican Party win the NC-13 House seat?
1 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 26¢ · $454 held · ends Nov 4
⚠️
Avoid
No
2
No 50%
$453.68
$112.8
Research grade
AvoidNo at 26%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 2 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 74%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 aenews2CTR | Noavg 26¢ | $1.2K | $418.68 | +$116.3 | 60% 1740-1151 (2891) |
SB sbimbg<$100 | Yesavg 84¢ | $42 | $35 | -$3.5 | 64% 2141-1207 (3348) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
26.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.