Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (66%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the Republican Party win the NC-09 House seat?

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 34¢ · $867 held · ends Nov 4

Yes66¢No34¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$867.45

Combined PnL

$6.7

Smart Money Entry

31.4¢ → 34¢

+8% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 34%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 66%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes66%

No34%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$788.53

Total Shares2,319

Combined PnL+$9.09

Yes1 trader

Total Value$78.93

Total Shares120

Combined PnL-$2.39

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR	Noavg 31.4¢	$1.1K	$677.57	+$2.68	56% 3214-2537 (5751)
aenews2CTR	Noavg 31¢	$100.44	$110.16	+$6.48	60% 1740-1151 (2891)
HE HerrieDavis<$100	Yesavg 69¢	$82.51	$78.93	-$2.39	47% 1714-1917 (3631)
YO YouSayUpISayDownCTR<$100	Noavg 30¢	$0.87	$0.8	-$0.07	61% 1506-979 (2485)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR

Invested

$1,068.94

Value

$677.57

PnL

+$2.68

Record

56%

3214-2537 (5751)

aenews2CTR

Invested

$100.44

Value

$110.16

PnL

+$6.48

Record

60%

1740-1151 (2891)

HerrieDavis<$100

Yes

Invested

$82.51

Value

$78.93

PnL

-$2.39

Record

47%

1714-1917 (3631)

YouSayUpISayDownCTR<$100

Invested

$0.87

Value

$0.8

PnL

-$0.07

Record

61%

1506-979 (2485)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 34%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 66%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance35.9%

34.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$178.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

278.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.