Will the Republican Party win the MS-01 House seat?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 96¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
3
Yes 67%
$4.4K
$80.33
94.4¢ → 96¢
+2% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 96%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 ImJustKen | Yesavg 94¢ | $2.4K | $2.5K | +$54.98 | 53% 3029-2636 (5665) |
TH thoodr | Yesavg 95¢ | $1.9K | $1.9K | +$26 | 96% 593-23 (616) |
 UbuntuTradingCTR<$100 | Noavg 5¢ | $2.36 | $1.71 | -$0.64 | 57% 3037-2281 (5318) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.