Will the Republican Party win the FL-15 House seat?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 93¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
3
Yes 67%
$3.8K
$281.59
87.9¢ → 92.8¢
+6% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 93%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836 | Yesavg 88.3¢ | $3.3K | $3.6K | +$254.38 | 61% 200-129 (329) |
HO HotDogs | Yesavg 79¢ | $134.3 | $157.76 | +$27.54 | 94% 441-28 (469) |
HO HourglassCTR<$100 | Noavg 7.4¢ | $1.9 | $1.57 | -$0.34 | 77% 8528-2565 (11093) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.