Will the Republican Party win the FL-04 House seat?

1 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (17%) · Yes at 81¢ · $596 held · ends Nov 4

Yes81¢No19¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 17%

Total Value

$596.03

Combined PnL

$4.05

Research grade

NeutralYes at 81%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 6 top traders (17%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes81%

No19%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes1 trader

Total Value$522.7

Total Shares649

Combined PnL-$3.07

No5 traders

Total Value$73.2

Total Shares375

Combined PnL+$7.13

Yes — 17%No — 83%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HotDogs	Yesavg 83¢	$538.76	$522.7	-$3.07	94% 441-28 (469)
PO pollo07CTR<$100	Noavg 17¢	$19.67	$22.61	+$2.94	34% 269-513 (782)
KA kaxel78CTR<$100	Noavg 17.6¢	$20.43	$22.61	+$2.18	35% 217-411 (628)
KL klli27CTR<$100	Noavg 18¢	$13.67	$14.81	+$1.14	34% 239-474 (713)
ZE zerone777CTR<$100	Noavg 18.2¢	$11.5	$12.34	+$0.85	45% 350-433 (783)
HO HourglassCTR<$100	Noavg 16¢	$0.67	$0.82	+$0.02	78% 8437-2387 (10824)

HotDogs

Yes

Invested

$538.76

Value

$522.7

PnL

-$3.07

Record

94%

441-28 (469)

pollo07CTR<$100

Invested

$19.67

Value

$22.61

PnL

+$2.94

Record

34%

269-513 (782)

kaxel78CTR<$100

Invested

$20.43

Value

$22.61

PnL

+$2.18

Record

35%

217-411 (628)

klli27CTR<$100

Invested

$13.67

Value

$14.81

PnL

+$1.14

Record

34%

239-474 (713)

zerone777CTR<$100

Invested

$11.5

Value

$12.34

PnL

+$0.85

Record

45%

350-433 (783)

HourglassCTR<$100

Invested

$0.67

Value

$0.82

PnL

+$0.02

Record

78%

8437-2387 (10824)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 81%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 6 top traders (17%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance82.6%

81.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$21.08

Max Loss

-$100.00

121.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.