Will the Republican Party win the AZ-01 House seat?
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 79¢ · $13K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 86%
1 arb excluded
$12.9K
$159.95
78.5¢ → 78.5¢
+0% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 79%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
-14 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 79%
Freshness
Late
160h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 82.1¢ | $4.1K | $4.1K | -$9.68 | 40% 271-412 (683) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 82.1¢ | $3.3K | $3.2K | -$146.27 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 18¢ | $733.8 | $874.5 | +$136.59 | |
 0xheavy888 | Noavg 81¢ | $4.0K | $3.9K | -$125 | 56% 6726-5390 (12116) |
AF afdafdafdafdafd | Noavg 74¢ | $2.6K | $2.9K | +$293.29 | 71% 178-73 (251) |
 mrworldwide | Noavg 81.5¢ | $978 | $942 | -$36 | 68% 758-349 (1107) |
PO pollo07 | Noavg 80.4¢ | $546.81 | $534.17 | -$12.64 | 34% 289-554 (843) |
VA Vale54holi | Noavg 80.2¢ | $353.45 | $346.04 | -$7.41 | 31% 149-329 (478) |
AB ABC12345654321CTR | Yesavg 16.6¢ | $154.55 | $199.64 | +$45.09 | 51% 1625-1585 (3210) |
DE dedidanc<$100 | Noavg 71¢ | $15.63 | $18.25 | +$2.63 | 57% 92-69 (161) |
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$4,107.87
Value
$4.1K
PnL
-$9.68
Record
40%
271-412 (683)
Both legs:
0xheavy888Invested
$4,050
Value
$3.9K
PnL
-$125
Record
56%
6726-5390 (12116)
Invested
$2,561.39
Value
$2.9K
PnL
+$293.29
Record
71%
178-73 (251)
mrworldwideInvested
$978
Value
$942
PnL
-$36
Record
68%
758-349 (1107)
Invested
$546.81
Value
$534.17
PnL
-$12.64
Record
34%
289-554 (843)
Invested
$353.45
Value
$346.04
PnL
-$7.41
Record
31%
149-329 (478)
Invested
$154.55
Value
$199.64
PnL
+$45.09
Record
51%
1625-1585 (3210)
Invested
$15.63
Value
$18.25
PnL
+$2.63
Record
57%
92-69 (161)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.