Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TX-31 House election by 15%-20%?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 75¢ · $324 held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 40%
$324
$66.75
76.7¢ → 75¢
-2% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 75%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AJ AJSV | Noavg 76.5¢ | $417.62 | $264.44 | +$32.84 | 36% 13723-24173 (37896) |
 2B9SCTR<$100 | Yesavg 23.8¢ | $23.89 | $25.59 | +$1.7 | 18% 3414-15601 (19015) |
 AnjunCTR<$100 | Yesavg 23¢ | $12.65 | $14.03 | +$1.38 | 56% 4720-3704 (8424) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 80¢ | $10.1 | $10 | -$0 | 49% 269-278 (547) |
 fkpaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 15¢ | $96.91 | $9.75 | +$30.84 | — |
Invested
$417.62
Value
$264.44
PnL
+$32.84
Record
36%
13723-24173 (37896)
2B9SCTR<$100Invested
$23.89
Value
$25.59
PnL
+$1.7
Record
18%
3414-15601 (19015)
AnjunCTR<$100Invested
$12.65
Value
$14.03
PnL
+$1.38
Record
56%
4720-3704 (8424)
Istaroth<$100Invested
$10.1
Value
$10
PnL
-$0
Record
49%
269-278 (547)
fkpaCTR<$100Invested
$96.91
Value
$9.75
PnL
+$30.84
Record
—
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
75.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.