Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 3%-6%?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 87¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$1.7K
$112.07
89.4¢ → 87.1¢
-3% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 87%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Late
264h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x91c363acd95bb150d4fd28912737eaf6125b409f | Noavg 88.2¢ | $768.84 | $770.32 | +$1.4 | 75% 92-30 (122) |
CO cocococococo | Noavg 90.9¢ | $610.35 | $593.56 | -$2.69 | 52% 1615-1480 (3095) |
BO botbotCTR | Yesavg 5.5¢ | $81.28 | $172.15 | +$90.87 | 43% 310-408 (718) |
 Istaroth | Noavg 90.1¢ | $103.2 | $100 | -$3.19 | 58% 263-194 (457) |
SH shiifooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.5¢ | $54.31 | $79.99 | +$25.68 | 63% 2548-1469 (4017) |
Invested
$768.84
Value
$770.32
PnL
+$1.4
Record
75%
92-30 (122)
Invested
$610.35
Value
$593.56
PnL
-$2.69
Record
52%
1615-1480 (3095)
Invested
$81.28
Value
$172.15
PnL
+$90.87
Record
43%
310-408 (718)
IstarothInvested
$103.2
Value
$100
PnL
-$3.19
Record
58%
263-194 (457)
Invested
$54.31
Value
$79.99
PnL
+$25.68
Record
63%
2548-1469 (4017)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
87.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.