Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 PA-13 House election by 50%-55%?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 94¢ · $169 held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$169.27
$4.5
88.6¢ → 94.3¢
+6% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 94%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AJ AJSV<$100 | Noavg 86.1¢ | $60.06 | $65.35 | +$5.29 | 36% 13723-24173 (37896) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 89.2¢ | $35.04 | $35 | -$0.04 | 49% 269-278 (547) |
SH shiifoo<$100 | Noavg 89.1¢ | $31.19 | $31.52 | +$0.33 | 60% 2895-1934 (4829) |
 2B9S<$100 | Noavg 84¢ | $18.74 | $19.4 | +$0.66 | 18% 3414-15601 (19015) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 98.8¢ | $19.75 | $18 | -$1.75 | 63% 16296-9616 (25912) |
Invested
$60.06
Value
$65.35
PnL
+$5.29
Record
36%
13723-24173 (37896)
Istaroth<$100Invested
$35.04
Value
$35
PnL
-$0.04
Record
49%
269-278 (547)
Invested
$31.19
Value
$31.52
PnL
+$0.33
Record
60%
2895-1934 (4829)
2B9S<$100Invested
$18.74
Value
$19.4
PnL
+$0.66
Record
18%
3414-15601 (19015)
balthazar<$100Invested
$19.75
Value
$18
PnL
-$1.75
Record
63%
16296-9616 (25912)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.