Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 OR-02 House election by 20%-25%?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 67¢ · $848 held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$848
$186.8
62.1¢ → 67¢
+8% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 67%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AJ AJSV | Noavg 61¢ | $794.97 | $663.27 | +$68.29 | 36% 13723-24173 (37896) |
 2B9S<$100 | Noavg 69.5¢ | $83.58 | $85.4 | +$1.82 | 18% 3414-15601 (19015) |
 fkpaCTR | Yesavg 17.3¢ | $146.87 | $73.99 | +$115.86 | — |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 63¢ | $12.6 | $13.9 | +$1.3 | 63% 16296-9616 (25912) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 68.8¢ | $11.58 | $11.07 | -$0.48 | 49% 269-278 (547) |
Invested
$794.97
Value
$663.27
PnL
+$68.29
Record
36%
13723-24173 (37896)
2B9S<$100Invested
$83.58
Value
$85.4
PnL
+$1.82
Record
18%
3414-15601 (19015)
fkpaCTRInvested
$146.87
Value
$73.99
PnL
+$115.86
Record
—
balthazar<$100Invested
$12.6
Value
$13.9
PnL
+$1.3
Record
63%
16296-9616 (25912)
Istaroth<$100Invested
$11.58
Value
$11.07
PnL
-$0.48
Record
49%
269-278 (547)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
67.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.