Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Ohio Senate election by 3%-6%?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 96¢ · $362 held · ends Nov 4

Yes4¢No96¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$362.01

Combined PnL

$9.21

Smart Money Entry

91.7¢ → 96.5¢

+5% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$353.06

Total Shares360

Combined PnL+$3.68

Yes2 traders

Total Value$8.95

Total Shares242

Combined PnL+$5.53

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
12 123987456	Noavg 93¢	$186	$192.6	+$6.6	46% 1643-1956 (3599)
AJ AJSV	Noavg 87¢	$122.59	$120.78	-$1.81	36% 13723-24173 (37896)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 99¢	$40.8	$39.69	-$1.11	63% 16296-9616 (25912)
PI piepedCTR<$100	Yesavg 1¢	$2.22	$8.21	+$5.99	45% 56-69 (125)
IM immanuelcanCTR<$100	Yesavg 6¢	$1.2	$0.74	-$0.46	54% 882-766 (1648)

123987456

Invested

$186

Value

$192.6

PnL

+$6.6

Record

46%

1643-1956 (3599)

AJSV

Invested

$122.59

Value

$120.78

PnL

-$1.81

Record

36%

13723-24173 (37896)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$40.8

Value

$39.69

PnL

-$1.11

Record

63%

16296-9616 (25912)

piepedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.22

Value

$8.21

PnL

+$5.99

Record

45%

56-69 (125)

immanuelcanCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.2

Value

$0.74

PnL

-$0.46

Record

54%

882-766 (1648)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.5%

96.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.51

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.