Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 NC-13 House election by 5%-10%?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 75¢ · $225 held · ends Nov 4

Yes26¢No74¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$225.46

Combined PnL

$89.62

Smart Money Entry

74.4¢ → 74.5¢

+0% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 75%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes26%

No75%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$197.86

Total Shares251

Combined PnL-$39.16

Yes2 traders

Total Value$27.6

Total Shares120

Combined PnL+$128.78

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AJ AJSV	Noavg 72.2¢	$236.77	$111.66	-$36.56	36% 14275-25592 (39867)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 80.7¢	$48.4	$46.2	-$2.2	62% 19931-12391 (32322)
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 73.5¢	$40.4	$40	-$0.4	40% 271-412 (683)
fkpaCTR	Yesavg 24¢	$156.29	$23	+$128.98	—
AnjunCTR<$100	Yesavg 24¢	$4.8	$4.6	-$0.2	56% 4838-3824 (8662)

AJSV

Invested

$236.77

Value

$111.66

PnL

-$36.56

Record

36%

14275-25592 (39867)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$48.4

Value

$46.2

PnL

-$2.2

Record

62%

19931-12391 (32322)

Istaroth<$100

Invested

$40.4

Value

$40

PnL

-$0.4

Record

40%

271-412 (683)

fkpaCTR

Yes

Invested

$156.29

Value

$23

PnL

+$128.98

Record

—

AnjunCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.8

Value

$4.6

PnL

-$0.2

Record

56%

4838-3824 (8662)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 75%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance76.2%

74.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$31.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

131.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.