Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 MI-02 House election by 40% or more?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 94¢ · $455 held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$455.02
$15.03
93.9¢ → 93.8¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 94%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SH shiifoo | Noavg 89.7¢ | $177.6 | $178.69 | +$1.09 | 60% 2895-1934 (4829) |
 balthazar | Noavg 99.7¢ | $179.13 | $162.15 | -$16.98 | 63% 16296-9616 (25912) |
AJ AJSV<$100 | Noavg 90.3¢ | $59.86 | $66.24 | +$6.38 | 36% 13723-24173 (37896) |
 2B9SCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.5¢ | $4.46 | $28.25 | +$23.79 | 18% 3414-15601 (19015) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 90.9¢ | $18.15 | $17.85 | -$0.08 | 49% 269-278 (547) |
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.4¢ | $1.02 | $1.84 | +$0.82 | 50% 108-110 (218) |
Invested
$177.6
Value
$178.69
PnL
+$1.09
Record
60%
2895-1934 (4829)
balthazarInvested
$179.13
Value
$162.15
PnL
-$16.98
Record
63%
16296-9616 (25912)
Invested
$59.86
Value
$66.24
PnL
+$6.38
Record
36%
13723-24173 (37896)
2B9SCTR<$100Invested
$4.46
Value
$28.25
PnL
+$23.79
Record
18%
3414-15601 (19015)
Istaroth<$100Invested
$18.15
Value
$17.85
PnL
-$0.08
Record
49%
269-278 (547)
Invested
$1.02
Value
$1.84
PnL
+$0.82
Record
50%
108-110 (218)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
93.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.