Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 KY-04 House election by 30%-35%?

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 80¢ · $404 held · ends Nov 4

Yes20¢No80¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 40%

Total Value

$404.28

Combined PnL

$70.5

Smart Money Entry

82.8¢ → 80.1¢

-3% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 80%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes20%

No80%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$241.69

Total Shares223

Combined PnL+$15.53

Yes3 traders

Total Value$162.59

Total Shares879

Combined PnL+$54.97

No — 40%Yes — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AJ AJSV	Noavg 82.8¢	$232.98	$209.41	+$16.43	36% 13723-24173 (37896)
0X 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754CTR	Yesavg 14.2¢	$75.27	$123.54	+$53.67	— 0-1 (1)
2B9S<$100	Noavg 83¢	$33.18	$32.28	-$0.9	18% 3414-15601 (19015)
fkpaCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.3¢	$24.1	$27.34	+$3.24	—
AnjunCTR<$100	Yesavg 12.3¢	$13.65	$11.71	-$1.94	56% 4720-3704 (8424)

AJSV

Invested

$232.98

Value

$209.41

PnL

+$16.43

Record

36%

13723-24173 (37896)

0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754CTR

Yes

Invested

$75.27

Value

$123.54

PnL

+$53.67

Record

—

0-1 (1)

2B9S<$100

Invested

$33.18

Value

$32.28

PnL

-$0.9

Record

18%

3414-15601 (19015)

fkpaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$24.1

Value

$27.34

PnL

+$3.24

Record

—

AnjunCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.65

Value

$11.71

PnL

-$1.94

Record

56%

4720-3704 (8424)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 80%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance81.7%

80.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$22.38

Max Loss

-$100.00

122.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.