Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 IN-08 House election by 25%-30%?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 67¢ · $740 held · ends Nov 4

Yes34¢No66¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$740.06

Combined PnL

$47.27

Smart Money Entry

71¢ → 66.5¢

-6% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 67%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes34%

No67%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$453.79

Total Shares404

Combined PnL+$8.9

Yes2 traders

Total Value$286.27

Total Shares1,218

Combined PnL+$38.37

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AJ AJSV	Noavg 69.9¢	$440.65	$372.66	+$12.01	36% 13723-24173 (37896)
0X 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754CTR	Yesavg 22.5¢	$342.71	$225.13	+$57.88	— 0-1 (1)
2B9S<$100	Noavg 75.7¢	$69.7	$63.13	-$1.77	18% 3414-15601 (19015)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 31¢	$80.66	$61.14	-$19.51	54% 4740-4091 (8831)
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 71¢	$19.62	$18	-$1.34	49% 269-278 (547)

AJSV

Invested

$440.65

Value

$372.66

PnL

+$12.01

Record

36%

13723-24173 (37896)

0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754CTR

Yes

Invested

$342.71

Value

$225.13

PnL

+$57.88

Record

—

0-1 (1)

2B9S<$100

Invested

$69.7

Value

$63.13

PnL

-$1.77

Record

18%

3414-15601 (19015)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$80.66

Value

$61.14

PnL

-$19.51

Record

54%

4740-4091 (8831)

Istaroth<$100

Invested

$19.62

Value

$18

PnL

-$1.34

Record

49%

269-278 (547)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 67%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance68.4%

66.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$46.25

Max Loss

-$100.00

146.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.