Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 IA-04 House election by 15%-20%?
2 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 67¢ · $892 held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
2
No 100%
1 arb excluded
$892.15
$9.26
61.4¢ → 66.7¢
+9% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 67%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 2 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AJ AJSVARB<$100 | Noavg 67.2¢ | $930.78 | $774.79 | +$129.74 | 36% 13289-23211 (36500) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 67.2¢ | $475.09 | $471.31 | -$52.91 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 25.2¢ | $191.55 | $303.48 | +$182.65 | |
0X 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754<$100 | Noavg 66.7¢ | $70.71 | $70.71 | +$0 | — 0-1 (1) |
SH shiifoo<$100 | Noavg 53.4¢ | $37.4 | $46.66 | +$9.26 | 61% 2707-1738 (4445) |
Invested
$930.78
Value
$774.79
PnL
+$129.74
Record
36%
13289-23211 (36500)
Both legs:
Invested
$70.71
Value
$70.71
PnL
+$0
Record
—
0-1 (1)
Invested
$37.4
Value
$46.66
PnL
+$9.26
Record
61%
2707-1738 (4445)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
66.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.