Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (70%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 GA-07 House election by 5%-10%?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 31¢ · $530 held · ends Nov 4

Yes31¢No69¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 60%

Total Value

$530

Combined PnL

$100.8

Smart Money Entry

22.9¢ → 30.5¢

+33% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 31%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes31%

No70%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$381.66

Total Shares755

Combined PnL+$90.57

No2 traders

Total Value$148.27

Total Shares138

Combined PnL+$10.23

Yes — 60%No — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AJ AJSVCTR	Yesavg 26.3¢	$321.2	$319.45	+$49.4	36% 13848-24478 (38326)
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 70.4¢	$99.84	$98	-$0.81	43% 269-351 (620)
fkpaCTR<$100	Yesavg 11.5¢	$19.34	$58.71	+$39.37	—
2B9S<$100	Noavg 66.5¢	$45.5	$50.26	+$11.04	18% 3455-15751 (19206)
AnjunCTR<$100	Yesavg 17¢	$1.7	$3.5	+$1.8	56% 4773-3739 (8512)

AJSVCTR

Yes

Invested

$321.2

Value

$319.45

PnL

+$49.4

Record

36%

13848-24478 (38326)

Istaroth<$100

Invested

$99.84

Value

$98

PnL

-$0.81

Record

43%

269-351 (620)

fkpaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.34

Value

$58.71

PnL

+$39.37

Record

—

2B9S<$100

Invested

$45.5

Value

$50.26

PnL

+$11.04

Record

18%

3455-15751 (19206)

AnjunCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.7

Value

$3.5

PnL

+$1.8

Record

56%

4773-3739 (8512)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 31%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance32.4%

30.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$208.99

Max Loss

-$100.00

309.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.