Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on October 26?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 85¢ · $5K held · ends Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 67%
$4.5K
$187.99
75.3¢ → 84.8¢
+13% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 85%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 75¢ | $3.8K | $4.0K | +$254.73 | 65% 1435-766 (2201) |
0X 0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394 | Noavg 78.5¢ | $414.87 | $400 | -$14.87 | 57% 678-512 (1190) |
0X 0xDB5CTR | Yesavg 22.3¢ | $144.48 | $92.6 | -$51.87 | 56% 1284-1021 (2305) |
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
84.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.