Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on October 26?

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 97¢ · $658 held · ends Oct 26

Yes3¢No97¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

Total Value

$657.58

Combined PnL

-$91.91

Smart Money Entry

89.8¢ → 97¢

+8% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$651.11

Total Shares821

Combined PnL-$88.4

Yes1 trader

Total Value$6.47

Total Shares168

Combined PnL-$3.51

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452	Noavg 86.8¢	$458.98	$417.85	-$41.13	65% 1216-662 (1878)
balthazar	Noavg 97¢	$104.99	$85.53	-$19.46	64% 14982-8561 (23543)
12 123987456	Noavg 93.8¢	$101.28	$85.32	-$15.96	46% 1616-1883 (3499)
0X 0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394<$100	Noavg 94¢	$74.26	$62.41	-$11.85	57% 612-471 (1083)
0X 0xDB5CTR<$100	Yesavg 5.9¢	$9.98	$6.47	-$3.51	54% 1025-874 (1899)

0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452

Invested

$458.98

Value

$417.85

PnL

-$41.13

Record

65%

1216-662 (1878)

balthazar

Invested

$104.99

Value

$85.53

PnL

-$19.46

Record

64%

14982-8561 (23543)

123987456

Invested

$101.28

Value

$85.32

PnL

-$15.96

Record

46%

1616-1883 (3499)

0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394<$100

Invested

$74.26

Value

$62.41

PnL

-$11.85

Record

57%

612-471 (1083)

0xDB5CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.98

Value

$6.47

PnL

-$3.51

Record

54%

1025-874 (1899)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.1%

97.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.95

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.