Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on October 25?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 99¢ · $9K held · ends Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$9.5K
$1.2K
83.5¢ → 98.8¢
+18% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 99%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Mature
22h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Yesavg 83.7¢ | $7.7K | $9.0K | +$1.3K | 67% 807-395 (1202) |
0X 0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394CTR | Noavg 14.3¢ | $424.75 | $282.77 | -$141.98 | 55% 543-440 (983) |
0X 0xDB5 | Yesavg 76.7¢ | $350.83 | $201.87 | +$44.99 | 53% 886-790 (1676) |
 PippiTrader<$100 | Yesavg 22¢ | $0.39 | $1.63 | +$1.19 | 59% 199-136 (335) |
YO YouSayUpISayDownCTR<$100 | Noavg 9¢ | $0.91 | $0.81 | -$0.1 | 62% 1602-997 (2599) |
Invested
$7,677.63
Value
$9.0K
PnL
+$1.3K
Record
67%
807-395 (1202)
Invested
$424.75
Value
$282.77
PnL
-$141.98
Record
55%
543-440 (983)
Invested
$350.83
Value
$201.87
PnL
+$44.99
Record
53%
886-790 (1676)
PippiTrader<$100Invested
$0.39
Value
$1.63
PnL
+$1.19
Record
59%
199-136 (335)
Invested
$0.91
Value
$0.81
PnL
-$0.1
Record
62%
1602-997 (2599)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.