Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (57%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on October 26?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 43¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$1.8K
$702.02
65.9¢ → 43.4¢
-34% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 43%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 57%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Yesavg 25.3¢ | $526.31 | $1.1K | +$595.02 | 65% 1216-662 (1878) |
0X 0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394CTR | Noavg 74.8¢ | $381.6 | $358.98 | -$22.63 | 57% 612-471 (1083) |
 balthazarCTR | Noavg 38.1¢ | $102.18 | $225.42 | +$123.24 | 64% 14982-8561 (23543) |
YO YouSayUpISayDownCTR<$100 | Noavg 74.5¢ | $35.76 | $40.32 | +$4.56 | 62% 1716-1030 (2746) |
0X 0xDB5CTR<$100 | Noavg 60.6¢ | $13.94 | $10.65 | +$1.82 | 54% 1025-874 (1899) |
Invested
$526.31
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$595.02
Record
65%
1216-662 (1878)
Invested
$381.6
Value
$358.98
PnL
-$22.63
Record
57%
612-471 (1083)
balthazarCTRInvested
$102.18
Value
$225.42
PnL
+$123.24
Record
64%
14982-8561 (23543)
Invested
$35.76
Value
$40.32
PnL
+$4.56
Record
62%
1716-1030 (2746)
Invested
$13.94
Value
$10.65
PnL
+$1.82
Record
54%
1025-874 (1899)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
43.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.7¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.