Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on October 25?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 94¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
$4.0K
$934.16
86.6¢ → 93.9¢
+8% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 94%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 88.3¢ | $3.1K | $3.4K | +$240.16 | 67% 807-396 (1203) |
0X 0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394 | Noavg 72¢ | $2.1K | $402.59 | +$643.13 | 55% 543-440 (983) |
0X 0xDB5 | Noavg 85.9¢ | $579.96 | $199.39 | +$50.91 | 53% 886-790 (1676) |
 PippiTraderCTR<$100 | Yesavg 12¢ | $0.14 | $0.11 | -$0.04 | 59% 199-136 (335) |
Invested
$3,139.21
Value
$3.4K
PnL
+$240.16
Record
67%
807-396 (1203)
Invested
$2,081.06
Value
$402.59
PnL
+$643.13
Record
55%
543-440 (983)
Invested
$579.96
Value
$199.39
PnL
+$50.91
Record
53%
886-790 (1676)
PippiTraderCTR<$100Invested
$0.14
Value
$0.11
PnL
-$0.04
Record
59%
199-136 (335)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
93.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.