Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on October 27?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 96¢ · $4K held · ends Oct 27

Yes4¢No96¢Ends Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$3.5K

Combined PnL

$67.42

Smart Money Entry

95.2¢ → 96¢

+1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$3.5K

Total Shares3,608

Combined PnL+$96.25

Yes2 traders

Total Value$24.38

Total Shares834

Combined PnL-$28.83

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452	Noavg 96¢	$3.1K	$3.1K	-$40.89	65% 2304-1251 (3555)
0X 0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394	Noavg 88.8¢	$1.8K	$383.64	+$137.14	59% 997-689 (1686)
0X 0xDB5CTR<$100	Yesavg 5.5¢	$34.75	$17.61	-$17.14	59% 2126-1500 (3626)
12 123987456CTR<$100	Yesavg 9¢	$18.45	$6.77	-$11.69	45% 1786-2158 (3944)

0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452

Invested

$3,140.08

Value

$3.1K

PnL

-$40.89

Record

65%

2304-1251 (3555)

0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394

Invested

$1,825.15

Value

$383.64

PnL

+$137.14

Record

59%

997-689 (1686)

0xDB5CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$34.75

Value

$17.61

PnL

-$17.14

Record

59%

2126-1500 (3626)

123987456CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.45

Value

$6.77

PnL

-$11.69

Record

45%

1786-2158 (3944)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.2%

96.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.93

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.