Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on October 26?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 99¢ · $5K held · ends Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 67%
$4.9K
$105.54
96.2¢ → 99.4¢
+3% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 96.4¢ | $2.5K | $2.6K | +$70.32 | 65% 1435-766 (2201) |
0X 0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394 | Noavg 96¢ | $2.3K | $2.3K | +$73.14 | 57% 678-512 (1190) |
0X 0xDB5CTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.5¢ | $46.19 | $8.26 | -$37.93 | 56% 1284-1021 (2305) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.