Will the Philadelphia Eagles make the 2027 NFL Playoffs?

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 79¢ · $2K held · ends Jan 5, 2027

Yes21¢No79¢Ends Tue, Jan 5, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$2.2K

Combined PnL

$41.33

Smart Money Entry

75.8¢ → 79¢

+4% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 79%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes21%

No79%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares2,031

Combined PnL+$67.16

Yes1 trader

Total Value$567.43

Total Shares2,702

Combined PnL-$25.83

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AB ABC12345654321	Noavg 77.1¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$34.85	51% 1625-1585 (3210)
TimeTravelerCTR	Yesavg 25.8¢	$854.24	$567.43	-$25.83	41% 1918-2712 (4630)
TA TAIWANNUMBERONE<$100	Noavg 56¢	$55.1	$77.74	+$24.11	54% 1148-977 (2125)
JustADonk<$100	Noavg 60¢	$23.99	$31.59	+$8.2	55% 868-715 (1583)

ABC12345654321

Invested

$1,460.5

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$34.85

Record

51%

1625-1585 (3210)

TimeTravelerCTR

Yes

Invested

$854.24

Value

$567.43

PnL

-$25.83

Record

41%

1918-2712 (4630)

TAIWANNUMBERONE<$100

Invested

$55.1

Value

$77.74

PnL

+$24.11

Record

54%

1148-977 (2125)

JustADonk<$100

Invested

$23.99

Value

$31.59

PnL

+$8.2

Record

55%

868-715 (1583)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 79%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance80.8%

79.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$23.76

Max Loss

-$100.00

123.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.