Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be 2.5 or above?
1 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 63¢ · $908 held · ends Apr 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
2
Yes 50%
1 arb excluded
$908.2
$67.04
Research grade
NeutralYes at 63%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 2 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 IstarothARB<$100 | Yesavg 69.7¢ | $472.23 | $452.74 | -$10.33 | 43% 269-355 (624) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 69.7¢ | $315.81 | $285.25 | -$30.5 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 31.8¢ | $143.79 | $167.49 | +$20.17 | |
 FrozenParasite | Yesavg 58.9¢ | $279.5 | $296.71 | +$17.2 | 55% 421-346 (767) |
 EsperanzasDESTROYERCTR | Noavg 27.4¢ | $108.92 | $158.75 | +$49.83 | 51% 35-34 (69) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
63.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.