Will the Ornn A100 Index be between $1.00 and $1.25 on October 31, 2026?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 68¢ · $925 held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$924.98
$143.21
55.8¢ → 68¢
+22% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 68%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+40 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 86%
Freshness
Late
550h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
3 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 clazzy1 | Yesavg 68¢ | $323.95 | $359.58 | -$0.08 | 62% 345-209 (554) |
 GenaTheBondKilIer | Yesavg 44.9¢ | $74.15 | $312.37 | +$140.22 | 50% 507-498 (1005) |
 2B9S | Yesavg 46.4¢ | $71.03 | $105.79 | +$34.76 | 18% 3341-15435 (18776) |
AJ AJSVCTR | Noavg 56.2¢ | $97.15 | $91.02 | -$6.13 | 36% 13446-23443 (36889) |
 FrozenParasiteCTR<$100 | No | $56.21 | $56.21 | -$25.56 | 53% 356-310 (666) |
clazzy1Invested
$323.95
Value
$359.58
PnL
-$0.08
Record
62%
345-209 (554)
GenaTheBondKilIerInvested
$74.15
Value
$312.37
PnL
+$140.22
Record
50%
507-498 (1005)
2B9SInvested
$71.03
Value
$105.79
PnL
+$34.76
Record
18%
3341-15435 (18776)
Invested
$97.15
Value
$91.02
PnL
-$6.13
Record
36%
13446-23443 (36889)
FrozenParasiteCTR<$100Invested
$56.21
Value
$56.21
PnL
-$25.56
Record
53%
356-310 (666)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
68.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.