Will the Oklahoma City Thunder be the 2027 NBA Western Conference Champion?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 70¢ · $784 held · ends Jul 1, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
No
5
No 60%
$784.25
-$1.29
68.7¢ → 69.5¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 70%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | Noavg 68.9¢ | $314.84 | $277.44 | -$2.66 | 54% 4489-3820 (8309) |
 balthazar | Noavg 68.7¢ | $254.03 | $251.59 | -$2.44 | 64% 14982-8561 (23543) |
 DEGENKHANCTR | Yesavg 33.7¢ | $664.35 | $178.56 | +$3.76 | 66% 1093-559 (1652) |
 UbuntuTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 33¢ | $98.99 | $47.33 | +$0.04 | 58% 2971-2134 (5105) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 66¢ | $29.4 | $29.34 | -$0 | 50% 269-269 (538) |
Invested
$314.84
Value
$277.44
PnL
-$2.66
Record
54%
4489-3820 (8309)
balthazarInvested
$254.03
Value
$251.59
PnL
-$2.44
Record
64%
14982-8561 (23543)
DEGENKHANCTRInvested
$664.35
Value
$178.56
PnL
+$3.76
Record
66%
1093-559 (1652)
UbuntuTradingCTR<$100Invested
$98.99
Value
$47.33
PnL
+$0.04
Record
58%
2971-2134 (5105)
Istaroth<$100Invested
$29.4
Value
$29.34
PnL
-$0
Record
50%
269-269 (538)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.