Will the next GPT Terra model (5.7+) be released between October 26 and November 1, 2026?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 100¢ · $607 held · ends Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 40%
1 arb excluded
$606.99
-$139.58
97.6¢ → 100¢
+2% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 100%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 58.4¢ | $386.83 | $221.32 | -$41.56 | 42% 269-368 (637) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 43.8¢ | $97.03 | $121.72 | +$22.72 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 58.4¢ | $129.31 | $99.6 | -$64.28 | |
 petehegseth | Yesavg 98.5¢ | $392 | $218.89 | -$173.11 | 83% 24-5 (29) |
RO rocky42019CTR<$100 | Noavg 2¢ | $15.19 | $75 | +$86.27 | 42% 1653-2245 (3898) |
LI lissartterCTR<$100 | Noavg 48.3¢ | $69.75 | $56.06 | -$3.2 | 42% 5135-7056 (12191) |
 Contentious-Dinnerdate<$100 | Yesavg 92¢ | $56.12 | $33.55 | -$22.57 | 50% 381-388 (769) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Noavg 9.4¢ | $29.14 | $2.17 | -$26.97 | 62% 19071-11688 (30759) |
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$386.83
Value
$221.32
PnL
-$41.56
Record
42%
269-368 (637)
Both legs:
petehegsethInvested
$392
Value
$218.89
PnL
-$173.11
Record
83%
24-5 (29)
Invested
$15.19
Value
$75
PnL
+$86.27
Record
42%
1653-2245 (3898)
Invested
$69.75
Value
$56.06
PnL
-$3.2
Record
42%
5135-7056 (12191)
Contentious-Dinnerdate<$100Invested
$56.12
Value
$33.55
PnL
-$22.57
Record
50%
381-388 (769)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$29.14
Value
$2.17
PnL
-$26.97
Record
62%
19071-11688 (30759)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.