Will the next GPT Terra model (5.7+) be released between November 9 and November 15, 2026?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 95¢ · $164 held · ends Nov 16

Yes6¢No94¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$163.91

Combined PnL

$7.93

Smart Money Entry

91¢ → 94.5¢

+4% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes6%

No95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$131.93

Total Shares139

Combined PnL-$4.03

Yes2 traders

Total Value$31.98

Total Shares216

Combined PnL+$11.96

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 90.9¢	$91.54	$90	-$1.27	49% 269-278 (547)
AJ AJSVCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.9¢	$17.36	$24.99	+$7.63	36% 13723-24173 (37896)
LI lissartter<$100	Noavg 87.2¢	$25.29	$24.82	-$0.47	42% 4998-6886 (11884)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 97¢	$19.4	$17.11	-$2.29	63% 16296-9616 (25912)
RO rocky42019CTR<$100	Yesavg 5.5¢	$2.66	$6.99	+$4.33	42% 1562-2138 (3700)

Istaroth<$100

Invested

$91.54

Value

$90

PnL

-$1.27

Record

49%

269-278 (547)

AJSVCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.36

Value

$24.99

PnL

+$7.63

Record

36%

13723-24173 (37896)

lissartter<$100

Invested

$25.29

Value

$24.82

PnL

-$0.47

Record

42%

4998-6886 (11884)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$19.4

Value

$17.11

PnL

-$2.29

Record

63%

16296-9616 (25912)

rocky42019CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.66

Value

$6.99

PnL

+$4.33

Record

42%

1562-2138 (3700)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.7%

94.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.52

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.