Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 50% or higher?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 73¢ · $3K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
1 arb excluded
$2.9K
$834.38
38.3¢ → 72.5¢
+89% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 73%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 90%
Freshness
Late
2094h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
3 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AJ AJSVARB<$100 | Yesavg 45.8¢ | $1.3K | $1.0K | +$18.09 | 36% 13843-24467 (38310) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 50¢ | $488.44 | $698.5 | +$210.06 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 45.8¢ | $541.19 | $337.03 | -$191.97 | |
DE dedidancCTR | Yesavg 14.4¢ | $414.5 | $808.37 | +$343.71 | 57% 90-68 (158) |
 Tenebrus7 | Noavg 33.9¢ | $373.38 | $798.34 | +$424.96 | 73% 2897-1055 (3952) |
HI hithitfar | Noavg 69.3¢ | $136.38 | $142.75 | +$4.8 | 58% 451-331 (782) |
 KimchiCapital | Noavg 29¢ | $40.6 | $100.1 | +$60.9 | 73% 412-150 (562) |
Invested
$1,305.33
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$18.09
Record
36%
13843-24467 (38310)
Both legs:
Invested
$414.5
Value
$808.37
PnL
+$343.71
Record
57%
90-68 (158)
Tenebrus7Invested
$373.38
Value
$798.34
PnL
+$424.96
Record
73%
2897-1055 (3952)
Invested
$136.38
Value
$142.75
PnL
+$4.8
Record
58%
451-331 (782)
KimchiCapitalInvested
$40.6
Value
$100.1
PnL
+$60.9
Record
73%
412-150 (562)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
72.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.