Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by December 31, 2026?

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 62¢ · $2K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes39¢No61¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 40%

Total Value

$2.2K

Combined PnL

-$415.12

Smart Money Entry

66.2¢ → 61.5¢

-7% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 62%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes39%

No62%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares3,705

Combined PnL-$497.82

Yes3 traders

Total Value$128.71

Total Shares488

Combined PnL+$82.71

No — 40%Yes — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

503h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (4 on No) disagree here.

sharpYes 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DE dedidanc	Noavg 65.6¢	$2.1K	$1.7K	-$416.47	57% 90-68 (158)
Contentious-Dinnerdate	Noavg 70¢	$396.25	$410.63	-$81.35	50% 380-380 (760)
AJ AJSVCTR	Yesavg 33.8¢	$22.4	$96.9	+$74.5	36% 13848-24478 (38326)
TH thoodrCTR<$100	Yesavg 40.5¢	$19.01	$22.31	+$3.3	96% 573-23 (596)
XC xcaioxCTR<$100	Yesavg 23¢	$4.6	$9.5	+$4.9	77% 200-60 (260)

dedidanc

Invested

$2,085.06

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$416.47

Record

57%

90-68 (158)

Contentious-Dinnerdate

Invested

$396.25

Value

$410.63

PnL

-$81.35

Record

50%

380-380 (760)

AJSVCTR

Yes

Invested

$22.4

Value

$96.9

PnL

+$74.5

Record

36%

13848-24478 (38326)

thoodrCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.01

Value

$22.31

PnL

+$3.3

Record

96%

573-23 (596)

xcaioxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.6

Value

$9.5

PnL

+$4.9

Record

77%

200-60 (260)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 62%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

503h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (4 on No) disagree here.

sharpYes 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.4%

61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$57.64

Max Loss

-$100.00

157.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.