Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 29, 2026?
1 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 92¢ · $566 held · ends Oct 30
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Neutral
No
3
No 33%
$565.69
$24.78
Research grade
NeutralNo at 92%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 3 top traders (33%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | Noavg 94.2¢ | $514.47 | $512.36 | -$2.11 | 53% 6112-5366 (11478) |
 2B9SCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.5¢ | $2.38 | $47.12 | +$25.54 | 18% 3738-16559 (20297) |
TY TyshaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.8¢ | $4.75 | $6.1 | +$1.35 | 73% 7832-2915 (10747) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.