Back to Markets
YesNoNo
balthazar<$100No
Istaroth<$100NoYes
2B9S<$100No
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 25, 2026?
Resolved No. 29% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
7
Yes 50%
Total Value
$50
Combined PnL
-$143.37
Smart Money Signal
Yes
2 of 7 top traders (29%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
Loading chart data…
Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Yes2 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares802
Combined PnL-$152.87
No5 traders
Total Value$50
Total Shares50
Combined PnL+$9.5
Yes — 29%No — 71%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR | Yesavg 10¢ | $103.02 | — | -$152.87 | 54% 4556-3891 (8447) |
0X 0x91c363acd95bb150d4fd28912737eaf6125b409f<$100 | Noavg 81¢ | $40.5 | $50 | +$9.5 | 73% 101-37 (138) |
BI Bigggggggg<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | — | — | +$0 | 48% 2201-2369 (4570) |
balthazar<$100 | Noavg 94.3¢ | — | — | +$0 | 63% 15568-9006 (24574) |
Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 90.7¢ | — | — | +$0 | 49% 269-276 (545) |
AJ AJSVCTR<$100 | Yesavg 13.2¢ | — | — | +$0 | 36% 13604-23855 (37459) |
2B9S<$100 | Noavg 89.9¢ | — | — | +$0 | 18% 3382-15511 (18893) |
CB
Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTRInvested
$103.02
Value
—
PnL
-$152.87
Record
54%
4556-3891 (8447)
0X
0x91c363acd95bb150d4fd28912737eaf6125b409f<$100Invested
$40.5
Value
$50
PnL
+$9.5
Record
73%
101-37 (138)
BI
Bigggggggg<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
48%
2201-2369 (4570)
balthazar<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
63%
15568-9006 (24574)
Istaroth<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
49%
269-276 (545)
AJ
AJSVCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
36%
13604-23855 (37459)
2B9S<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
18%
3382-15511 (18893)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
Market Info
Condition ID
0x60b89219...779539
Slug
will-the-next-fable-model-5pt2-be-released-on-october-25-2026