Will the Moderate Party (M) be in the next Swedish government?

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 78¢ · $542 held · ended Sep 14

Yes22¢No78¢Ended Mon, Sep 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

Total Value

$542

Combined PnL

$9.86

Smart Money Entry

78¢ → 78¢

+0% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 78%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes22%

No78%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$537.62

Total Shares519

Combined PnL+$8.1

Yes1 trader

Total Value$4.12

Total Shares24

Combined PnL+$1.76

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AJ AJSV	Noavg 77.7¢	$800.62	$512.56	+$11.03	36% 13723-24173 (37896)
LI lissartter<$100	Noavg 84¢	$45.35	$11.54	-$3.01	42% 4998-6886 (11884)
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100	Noavg 82¢	$9.34	$9.4	+$0.06	80% 10491-2678 (13169)
RL RLWG<$100	Noavg 82¢	$4.1	$4.13	+$0.03	57% 6200-4745 (10945)
HE HerrieDavisCTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$2.35	$4.12	+$1.76	36% 1955-3427 (5382)

AJSV

Invested

$800.62

Value

$512.56

PnL

+$11.03

Record

36%

13723-24173 (37896)

lissartter<$100

Invested

$45.35

Value

$11.54

PnL

-$3.01

Record

42%

4998-6886 (11884)

Elias.Thornwell<$100

Invested

$9.34

Value

$9.4

PnL

+$0.06

Record

80%

10491-2678 (13169)

RLWG<$100

Invested

$4.1

Value

$4.13

PnL

+$0.03

Record

57%

6200-4745 (10945)

HerrieDavisCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.35

Value

$4.12

PnL

+$1.76

Record

36%

1955-3427 (5382)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 78%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.7%

78.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$25.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

125.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.