Will the Milwaukee Bucks make the 2027 NBA Playoffs?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 96¢ · $5K held
⚠️
Avoid
No
3
No 67%
$4.6K
$277.23
89.8¢ → 95.5¢
+6% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 96%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Nooserac | Noavg 89¢ | $3.4K | $3.7K | +$249.97 | 52% 5674-5232 (10906) |
0X 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | Noavg 92.8¢ | $974.47 | $959.66 | +$24.39 | 66% 555-285 (840) |
 TimeTravelerCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.1¢ | $9.53 | $12.39 | +$2.87 | 41% 1945-2752 (4697) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.