Will the lowest St. Louis river level be -3.00 to -1.01 ft by November 30?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 66¢ · $1K held · ends Dec 2
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 50%
1 arb excluded
$1.2K
$92.99
67.7¢ → 65.8¢
-3% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 66%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 69.7¢ | $727.01 | $704.37 | -$12.24 | 49% 269-278 (547) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 69.7¢ | $490.89 | $430.37 | -$60.52 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 32¢ | $225.56 | $274 | +$48.28 | |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | Noavg 63¢ | $141.03 | $136.78 | -$4.25 | 54% 4740-4091 (8831) |
 2B9SCTR | Yesavg 11.1¢ | $40.35 | $128.03 | +$87.67 | 18% 3382-15511 (18893) |
AJ AJSV | Noavg 72.7¢ | $134.59 | $126.84 | -$7.75 | 36% 13604-23855 (37459) |
0X 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754CTR<$100 | Yesavg 30¢ | $25.86 | $93.63 | +$17.32 | — 0-1 (1) |
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$727.01
Value
$704.37
PnL
-$12.24
Record
49%
269-278 (547)
Both legs:
Invested
$141.03
Value
$136.78
PnL
-$4.25
Record
54%
4740-4091 (8831)
2B9SCTRInvested
$40.35
Value
$128.03
PnL
+$87.67
Record
18%
3382-15511 (18893)
Invested
$134.59
Value
$126.84
PnL
-$7.75
Record
36%
13604-23855 (37459)
Invested
$25.86
Value
$93.63
PnL
+$17.32
Record
—
0-1 (1)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
65.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.