Will the lowest St. Louis river level be -1.00 to 0.99 ft by November 30?
1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (25%) · No at 84¢ · $1K held · ends Dec 2
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 25%
1 arb excluded
$1.1K
$113.51
Research grade
NeutralNo at 84%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 4 top traders (25%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 65.9¢ | $457.56 | $435.44 | -$17.38 | 43% 269-355 (624) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 65.9¢ | $286.8 | $304.81 | +$17.85 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 38¢ | $165.44 | $130.63 | -$35.23 | |
0X 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754 | Noavg 61.9¢ | $317.66 | $369.43 | +$51.77 | — 0-1 (1) |
AJ AJSVCTR | Yesavg 31.2¢ | $222.76 | $121.09 | +$52.95 | 36% 13969-24716 (38685) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR | Yesavg 23.9¢ | $79.9 | $100.16 | +$20.26 | 32% 3859-8035 (11894) |
 2B9SCTR<$100 | Yesavg 34.9¢ | $57.23 | $45.75 | -$11.48 | 18% 3644-16107 (19751) |
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$457.56
Value
$435.44
PnL
-$17.38
Record
43%
269-355 (624)
Both legs:
Invested
$317.66
Value
$369.43
PnL
+$51.77
Record
—
0-1 (1)
Invested
$222.76
Value
$121.09
PnL
+$52.95
Record
36%
13969-24716 (38685)
Invested
$79.9
Value
$100.16
PnL
+$20.26
Record
32%
3859-8035 (11894)
2B9SCTR<$100Invested
$57.23
Value
$45.75
PnL
-$11.48
Record
18%
3644-16107 (19751)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
83.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.