Will the Left Party (V) be in the next Swedish government?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 79¢ · $577 held · ended Sep 14
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 50%
$577.16
$42.57
82.4¢ → 78.5¢
-5% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 79%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 viniiCTR | Yesavg 15.9¢ | $210.48 | $257.99 | +$47.51 | 73% 2599-947 (3546) |
 Relaccsed | Noavg 85¢ | $212.5 | $196.25 | -$10 | 56% 1174-935 (2109) |
 Rex416 | Noavg 78¢ | $117 | $120.75 | +$3.75 | 57% 2446-1824 (4270) |
BI BikesAreTheBikesCTR<$100 | Yesavg 8¢ | $0.86 | $2.17 | +$1.31 | 39% 1753-2717 (4470) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.