Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (54%). 1 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will the Indiana Pacers make the 2027 NBA Playoffs?
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (20%) · No at 46¢ · $993 held
⚠️
Avoid
No
5
No 20%
$992.72
-$69.04
Research grade
AvoidNo at 46%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 54%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 TimeTravelerCTR | Noavg 39¢ | $797.78 | $715.96 | -$81.82 | 41% 1910-2699 (4609) |
 Istaroth | Yesavg 58¢ | $145.93 | $141.61 | -$3.05 | 49% 269-278 (547) |
 JustADonk | Yesavg 60.2¢ | $586.43 | $70.7 | +$12.12 | 55% 863-714 (1577) |
AJ AJSV | Yesavg 60.1¢ | $148.71 | $61.22 | +$3 | 36% 13723-24173 (37896) |
AB ABC12345654321<$100 | Yesavg 51¢ | $2.54 | $3.24 | +$0.7 | 51% 1545-1498 (3043) |
TimeTravelerCTRInvested
$797.78
Value
$715.96
PnL
-$81.82
Record
41%
1910-2699 (4609)
IstarothInvested
$145.93
Value
$141.61
PnL
-$3.05
Record
49%
269-278 (547)
JustADonkInvested
$586.43
Value
$70.7
PnL
+$12.12
Record
55%
863-714 (1577)
Invested
$148.71
Value
$61.22
PnL
+$3
Record
36%
13723-24173 (37896)
Invested
$2.54
Value
$3.24
PnL
+$0.7
Record
51%
1545-1498 (3043)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
46.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.