Will the Houthis enter Saudi Arabia by December 31?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 74¢ · $811 held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 40%
$810.82
$58.22
71.4¢ → 73.5¢
+3% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 74%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
519h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HU Huludubu | Noavg 70¢ | $3.59 | $342.64 | +$14.95 | 64% 1233-692 (1925) |
AJ AJSVCTR | Yesavg 24.3¢ | $110.58 | $138.72 | +$28.14 | 36% 13223-23096 (36319) |
CA cashyCTR | Yesavg 24.9¢ | $23.22 | $135.29 | +$6.21 | 71% 597-244 (841) |
 RememberAmalekCTR | Yesavg 22.3¢ | $96.92 | $110.08 | +$13.16 | 56% 951-746 (1697) |
NO nonkenny90<$100 | Noavg 77¢ | $93.17 | $84.1 | -$4.24 | 89% 4144-529 (4673) |
Invested
$3.59
Value
$342.64
PnL
+$14.95
Record
64%
1233-692 (1925)
Invested
$110.58
Value
$138.72
PnL
+$28.14
Record
36%
13223-23096 (36319)
Invested
$23.22
Value
$135.29
PnL
+$6.21
Record
71%
597-244 (841)
RememberAmalekCTRInvested
$96.92
Value
$110.08
PnL
+$13.16
Record
56%
951-746 (1697)
Invested
$93.17
Value
$84.1
PnL
-$4.24
Record
89%
4144-529 (4673)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
73.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.