Will the Houston Rockets be the 2027 NBA Western Conference Champion?

1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (20%) · No at 94¢ · $289 held

Yes6¢No94¢View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 20%

Total Value

$289.23

Combined PnL

$28.04

Research grade

AvoidNo at 94%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes6%

No94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$124.28

Total Shares130

Combined PnL+$0.87

Yes4 traders

Total Value$164.95

Total Shares3,042

Combined PnL+$27.17

No — 20%Yes — 80%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
balthazar	Noavg 94.9¢	$123.41	$124.28	+$0.87	64% 14982-8561 (23543)
TimeTravelerCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.5¢	$60.19	$90.61	+$30.43	42% 1904-2683 (4587)
QW QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCFCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.6¢	$63	$49.23	-$13.77	53% 324-289 (613)
DEGENKHANCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.6¢	$2.08	$16.21	+$14.14	66% 1093-559 (1652)
LE leegunnerCTR<$100	Yesavg 6.2¢	$12.51	$8.89	-$3.63	44% 1188-1508 (2696)

balthazar

Invested

$123.41

Value

$124.28

PnL

+$0.87

Record

64%

14982-8561 (23543)

TimeTravelerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$60.19

Value

$90.61

PnL

+$30.43

Record

42%

1904-2683 (4587)

QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCFCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$63

Value

$49.23

PnL

-$13.77

Record

53%

324-289 (613)

DEGENKHANCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.08

Value

$16.21

PnL

+$14.14

Record

66%

1093-559 (1652)

leegunnerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.51

Value

$8.89

PnL

-$3.63

Record

44%

1188-1508 (2696)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 94%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.3%

94.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.95

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.