Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (57%). 4 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 43¢ · $3K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 100%
1 arb excluded
$2.9K
$228.86
30.4¢ → 43.4¢
+43% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 43%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 91%
Freshness
Late
200h old
Flip Quality
Watch
2 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AJ AJSVARB<$100 | Yesavg 65.1¢ | $2.5K | $2.2K | +$75.38 | 36% 13223-23096 (36319) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 65.1¢ | $1.4K | $1.3K | -$143.16 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 31.9¢ | $675 | $810.48 | +$218.54 | |
0X 0x2b670A311561DcAF741D8155451774D3Fa7fb814-1778467735876CTR | Noavg 23.4¢ | $151.83 | $333.49 | +$181.65 | 46% 103-123 (226) |
ST StonktraderCTR | Noavg 36.8¢ | $12.44 | $313.05 | +$30.89 | 73% 127-47 (174) |
HE HerrieDavisCTR<$100 | Noavg 30.8¢ | $26.13 | $38.72 | +$12.59 | 37% 1908-3254 (5162) |
HI hithitfarCTR<$100 | Noavg 52.3¢ | $45.64 | $14.96 | +$3.73 | 58% 413-298 (711) |
Invested
$2,539.62
Value
$2.2K
PnL
+$75.38
Record
36%
13223-23096 (36319)
Both legs:
Invested
$151.83
Value
$333.49
PnL
+$181.65
Record
46%
103-123 (226)
Invested
$12.44
Value
$313.05
PnL
+$30.89
Record
73%
127-47 (174)
Invested
$26.13
Value
$38.72
PnL
+$12.59
Record
37%
1908-3254 (5162)
Invested
$45.64
Value
$14.96
PnL
+$3.73
Record
58%
413-298 (711)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
43.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.