Will the Golden State Warriors be the 2027 NBA Western Conference Champion?

1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (25%) · No at 99¢ · $427 held

Yes1¢No99¢View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 25%

Total Value

$427.04

Combined PnL

$2.08

Research grade

AvoidNo at 99%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 4 top traders (25%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$394.8

Total Shares400

Combined PnL+$0.12

Yes3 traders

Total Value$32.24

Total Shares2,401

Combined PnL+$1.96

No — 25%Yes — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
balthazar	Noavg 98.7¢	$394.68	$394.8	+$0.12	64% 14982-8561 (23543)
11 11122CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.4¢	$15.77	$14.99	-$0.78	44% 1360-1745 (3105)
TimeTravelerCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.2¢	$11.46	$12.73	+$1.27	42% 1904-2683 (4587)
UbuntuTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.4¢	$7	$4.52	+$1.48	58% 2971-2134 (5105)

balthazar

Invested

$394.68

Value

$394.8

PnL

+$0.12

Record

64%

14982-8561 (23543)

11122CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.77

Value

$14.99

PnL

-$0.78

Record

44%

1360-1745 (3105)

TimeTravelerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.46

Value

$12.73

PnL

+$1.27

Record

42%

1904-2683 (4587)

UbuntuTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$4.52

PnL

+$1.48

Record

58%

2971-2134 (5105)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 99%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 4 top traders (25%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.7%

98.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.